Friday, September 27, 2013

Matt Yglesias goes 2 for 3

If I were picking Wonkblog’s “best sentences we  read today,” I’d give serious consideration to these two offerings by Matt Yglesias:

● “This business of letting a hard-core of GOP rejectionists determine the terms of the debate is a choice, and it’s a choice he [Boehner] ought to reject.”

● “The actual forecast is that the political system will be under the control of a relatively narrow elite who will stomp on the interests of the median household.”

The former sentence comes from a post on the debt ceiling fight, the latter from his take on Tyler Cowen’s book, Average Is Over. Both posts are short, well worth the couple of minutes it takes to read them.

But then there’s his piece on why the Republicans should act for the greater good by abolishing the debt ceiling, which concludes with this:

● “If they all got together and made a pact to do the right thing, it’s not like they’d all face simultaneous primary challenges.”


Um, I bet they would. Yes, Matt, the Tea Party really is that radical. 

Friday grab-bag

● It seems pretty clear to me that Eric Schlosser’s Command and Control is the most important non-fiction book of the year – certainly the most chilling. Louis Menand’s New Yorker review does the honors. One excerpt:

Because a nineteen-year-old airman performing regular maintenance accidentally let a socket slip out of his wrench, a Titan II missile became a time bomb, and there was no way to turn off the timer. … If it had detonated, most of the state of Arkansas would have been wiped out.

● I would advise against clicking through to this Belle Waring screed on why male authors suck. I do not understand why this piece has gotten so much love on the Internet – I find it self-indulgent, smug, and ultimately far more mean-spirited, boring and closed-minded than the authors she criticizes.

● Matt Taibbi brings the outrage in his story on Wall Street looting America’s pension funds. One of his leading villains is Rhode Island’s Gina Raimondo: I remember when this gushing Time Magazine profile lauded her as the walk-on-water savior of all that was good and true. Here's Taibbi: 

Nor did anyone know that part of Raimondo's strategy for saving money involved handing more than $1 billion – 14 percent of the state fund – to hedge funds, including a trio of well-known New York-based funds: Dan Loeb's Third Point Capital was given $66 million, Ken Garschina's Mason Capital got $64 million and $70 million went to Paul Singer's Elliott Management. The funds now stood collectively to be paid tens of millions in fees every single year by the already overburdened taxpayers of her ostensibly flat-broke state. ...
In Rhode Island, over the course of 20 years, [former SEC lawyer Eric] Siedle projects that the state will pay $2.1 billion in fees to hedge funds, private-equity funds and venture-capital funds. Why is that number interesting? Because it very nearly matches the savings the state will be taking from workers by freezing their Cost of Living Adjustments – $2.3 billion over 20 years.
Video of the week: “Dig Budgie!” exclaimed WXPN DJ Dan Reed midway through Tuesday’s “Highs in the Seventies” segment, thus adverting to the hitherto unknown existence (to me, anyway) of Wales’ premier hard rock power trio. Wikipedia assures me they are big news in Poland and Texas, evidently places where a look and sound midway between Rush and Spinal Tap can woo the cognoscenti:


Thursday, September 26, 2013

Libertarians and food politics


Marion Nestle
I heard food activist Marion Nestle at Franklin & Marshall College’s Common Hour today. It was a good talk; Nestle is a lively, engaging speaker with a compelling message.

In her view, it’s no wonder U.S. obesity rates doubled between 1980 and 2008. Profit-hungry corporations are spending billions of dollars on marketing junk food to every man, woman and child in the country, portion sizes have expanded like crazy, and government policies have mostly made matters worse, not better.  We need to eat real food, in smaller portions, and we need to curb the power of the food-industrial complex (my term, not hers).

Afterward, there was a Q&A. The first questioner said he was a libertarian, and asked why any government involvement was needed on food issues at all. Nestle had spoken approvingly of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s initiative to limit the size of soft drinks; shouldn’t people be allowed to make their own choices, free of state paternalism?* Nestle responded that government is always involved in food policy, and it’s unrealistic to expect it not to be; the important thing is to align it with public health goals. 

That’s true as far as it goes, but I think a better response would have been to remind the questioner of a story she told midway through her speech.

It seems a group of students in an introductory nutrition class at New York University were shown two soft drink cups, an 8 oz. one and a 64 oz. one, and asked to estimate the number of calories each would contain. The correct answers are about 100 calories and 800 calories, respectively. The thing was, the students’ guesses for the large cup were only about three times bigger than the estimates for the smaller one, even though they were given the ounce numbers. According to Nestle, the students simply refused to believe that any serving of a soft drink, no matter how large, could contain 800 calories.

Isn’t that interesting? Here you have affluent, educated young adults in a nutrition class at a prestigious university, not being exposed to any advertising, facing at least some incentive to get the right answer – yet they still can’t bring themselves to believe that a 64 oz. drink will have eight times the calories of an 8 oz. one. 

What does that say about the judgments people are likely to make in everyday life? We're swamped by time pressure, watching our budgets, tempted at every turn by foods scientifically designed to be as addictive as possible. Even when relevant information is right in front of our noses, we miss it. Those NYU whiffed on a softball question; are we likely to do better? 

The libertarian conceit is that people are smart enough to know their own best interests, should be free to pursue them without government interference and should be left to bear the consequences, good or bad, on their own. When taken to extremes (and it often is), I think libertarianism turns a blind eye to the emotional, habit-laden ways real human beings make most decisions. A successful libertarian regime would require a level of widespread decision-making competence that's hard to square with an NYU class letting naive incredulity trump simple multiplication. 

If Peter Thiel ever gets his island, keep an eye on the diabetes rates. 
__________
 *Bloomberg’s much-mocked soda ban was based on solid behavioral science, according to Nestle. When you ban 32 oz. soda, it’s true that consumers can just buy two 16 oz. ones, but doing so requires just enough extra effort that most people don’t bother. The 16 oz. drink satisfies, them, they stop drinking when it’s done – and the 32 oz. drink’s extra 31 grams of sugar never enters their bloodstream.



Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Buggy crashes

Source: Wikimedia
In a freak accident last month, a woman was critically injured in Lancaster County when a minivan struck a horse that had broken away from a group of Amish trying to hitch it to a buggy.

Her brother is now calling for new traffic safety regulations for Amish buggies and is reaching out to local lawmakers. His crusade is the subject of a front-page story in the Lancaster Sunday News. People love to have opinions about the Amish; the article has drawn 57 comments as of this morning.

A table accompanying the article breaks down Lancaster County buggy crash data year-by-year from 2008 to 2012. In total, as the article notes, there were 136 such crashes in that period.

Well, how do buggy crashes compare to the overall accident rate? I didn’t feel like compiling five years of accident statistics, so I just did two. According to PennDOT, Lancaster County had a total of 10,666 vehicle crashes in 2011 and 2012, resulting in 90 fatalities. The corresponding numbers for buggy crashes, according to the Sunday News piece, were 51 and 1.



In other words, buggies accounted for less than one half of one percent of county vehicle crashes and just over 1 percent of the fatal ones.

Every crash is a trauma for the people who experience it, and a tragedy when someone is injured or killed. It’s natural, even laudable, to think, “No one else should have to go through this pain!” But in terms of public safety, buggy crashes aren’t something to focus on. Even reducing them to zero wouldn’t amount to a blip in the big picture.


Monday, September 23, 2013

Demographics by Seurat

A couple months ago, I came across a short writeup of the Racial Dot Map – a digital map on which researchers plotted the geographic location of every single person counted in the 2010 census. At the time, I hadn’t bothered to click through to the map itself. But for some reason I was in a demographic mood today.

Below is a section of the map centered on Lancaster city, where I live; click to enlarge. You can see the legend at the lower right: blue for white, green for black and so on. (Note that “Hispanic” is an origin, not a race: I believe anyone who self-identified as Hispanic, regardless of race, is flagged as orange.) Since we’re still zoomed out to some extent, we’re seeing smudges rather than individual dots. In case you’re curious about scale, by the way, it’s about 11.5 miles by car from Lancaster to Columbia.


Is this map surprising? That depends on how familiar you are with the region. Most people associate Lancaster County with the Amish, so I suspect the city’s large Hispanic population may occasion a few double-takes.  I certainly didn’t know about it before I moved here in 2007; I remember being floored when I first heard that the school district’s students are about 60 percent Latino. Countywide, the Hispanic population exceeds the Amish by 50 percent, according to recent estimates.

What you also see here is Lancaster County’s white suburban sprawl. Along the major arteries, housing developments have been replacing cornfields over the past few decades – putting considerable strain on those arteries, one might add. In this respect, Lancaster is not unlike many other parts of the country. 

If you go to the original map and zoom in all the way, you can see even more detail. It appears Lancaster has a couple of proto-Asian neighborhoods in the northeast. There's another smattering in the west suburbs, close to Lancaster General Health’s satellite campus, which makes me think they're likely medical professionals and their families. To the extent there’s a black neighborhood, it’s the north part of the city, but there are lots of other speckles mixed in; it's not homogenous. Harrisburg, by contrast, has a number of predominantly green – that is, black – neighborhoods, whereas the Hispanic population appears much smaller and less concentrated.

Check out your own town, and see how the demographics match up with your preconceptions and your understanding of local politics. It’s an interesting exercise.